Will Australia or New Zealand be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$179
14 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2034
2734 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will China be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will China be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup?: China
KXWCHOST-2038-CHN
Cluster 2
Will USA be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will USA be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup?: USA
KXWCHOST-2038-USA
Cluster 3
Will Egypt be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Egypt be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Egypt
KXWCHOST-2038-EGY
Cluster 4
Will Argentina, Uruguay, Chile or Paraguay be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 5
Will Australia or New Zealand be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 6
Will Brazil, Colombia or Peru be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 7
Will Cambodia be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Cambodia be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Cambodia
KXWCHOST-2038-CAM
Cluster 8
Will France, Belgium or the Netherlands be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 9
Will Germany be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Germany be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Germany
KXWCHOST-2038-GER
Cluster 10
Will Greece or Turkey be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Greece or Turkey be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Greece or Turkey
KXWCHOST-2038-GRTU
Cluster 11
Will Italy be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Italy be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Italy
KXWCHOST-2038-ITA
Cluster 12
Will Panama or Costa Rica be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 13
Will Switzerland or Austria be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 14
Will United Kingdom or Ireland be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup
Analysis
This probability represents the chance that either Australia or New Zealand will be formally announced as hosts for the 2038 FIFA Men's World Cup. The 8% estimate reflects that while both nations have hosted major tournaments before and possess adequate infrastructure, the competition for 2038 hosting rights remains open among several strong candidates globally. Key factors influencing this probability include FIFA's selection timeline and criteria, the countries' recent track record hosting comparable events, infrastructure readiness compared to rival bidders, and political-economic capacity to deliver an event of this scale. FIFA typically announces World Cup hosts 10-12 years in advance, meaning the 2038 decision is likely to occur in 2026-2027, creating an upcoming period of heightened clarity as formal bids are submitted and evaluated.
- ›FIFA's official 2038 World Cup host announcement is expected in late 2026 or 2027; this timeline is the primary near-term catalyst that will substantially reduce uncertainty
- ›Australia and New Zealand must formally submit competitive bids against other candidate nations; bid quality, financial guarantees, and stadium specifications directly affect selection odds
- ›Historical precedent shows UEFA nations (Europe) and CONMEBOL nations (South America) have hosted more frequently than AFC nations (Asia-Pacific), creating structural headwinds for Australia/New Zealand relative to European or South American bidders
- ›Infrastructure capacity: both nations have hosted major events (2015 Rugby World Cup in NZ, 2019 Women's World Cup in France then other events), but must demonstrate simultaneous hosting capability for 48+ teams at 12+ stadiums
- ›Current contract pricing similarity across disparate regional groups (8% for South America, 8% for Australia/NZ, 5% for Western Europe) suggests low confidence in any single bid rather than strong differentiation
What moved the line
- Jul 6USA↑20pp16→36¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 5China↑5pp21→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 5France, Belgium or the Netherlands↑4pp9→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 6United Kingdom or Ireland↑4pp5→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 5Argentina, Uruguay, Chile or Paraguay↑3pp14→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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