Will Harriet Hageman be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Wyoming?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (92%) for Hageman's nomination, yet the dramatically asymmetric implied yields—8.8% for Yes versus 475% for No—suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the downside. With only $216 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, this thin market lacks the depth to reliably reflect true odds, and the 7 Cliff Risk Index indicates vulnerability to sharp repricing if new information emerges before the November 2027 close.

Resolution rules

If Harriet Hageman wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Wyoming Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Regime

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