Harry Kane · KXWCAWARD-26GBALL
Harry Kane is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 9¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 15 inside KXWCAWARD-26GBALL.
Price history
10¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If Harry Kane wins the Golden Ball in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Harry Kane
Rank
#1 of 15
Leader
Harry Kane 9¢
Range
2¢-9¢
Family volume
$384
Identifier
KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-HKANE
May 25, 2026, 2:38 PM UTC · 12m ago
Implied probability
Bid
9¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$5
Family rank
#1 of 15
15 outcomes · KXWCAWARD-26GBALL
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Family volume
$384
Orderbook snapshot
9 / 12¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Harry Kane wins the Golden Ball in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Identifier
KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-HKANE
Event family
KXWCAWARD-26GBALL.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$384
Outcomes
15
Highest price
Harry Kane 9¢
Current share
1%
Harry Kane
kalshi · KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-HKANE
Kylian Mbappe
kalshi · KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-KMBAP
Bruno Fernandes
kalshi · KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-BFERN
Erling Haaland
kalshi · KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-EHAAL
Ousmane Dembele
kalshi · KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-ODEMB
Tie/Co-Winners
kalshi · KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-TIE
Michael Olise
kalshi · KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-MOLIS
Desire Doue
kalshi · KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-DDOUE
Lamine Yamal
kalshi · KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-LYAMA
Gavi
kalshi · KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-GAVI
Cristiano Ronaldo
kalshi · KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-CRONA
Neymar
kalshi · KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-NEYMA
Jeremy Doku
kalshi · KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-JDOKU
Lionel Messi
kalshi · KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-LMESS
Mikel Oyarzabal
kalshi · KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-MOYAR
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.