Will Lamine Yamal win the Best Young Player Award
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
14 contracts
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
65 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
13 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Will Lamine Yamal win” vs “Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Lamine Yamal win
Cluster 2
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball?: Lionel Messi
KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-LMESS
Cluster 3
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball?: Harry Kane
KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-HKANE
Cluster 4
Will Mike Maignan win the Golden Glove
Will Mike Maignan win the Golden Glove?: Mike Maignan
KXWCAWARD-26GGLOVE-MMAIG
Cluster 5
Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball
Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball?: Erling Haaland
KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-EHAAL
Cluster 6
Will Alisson win the Golden Glove
Will Alisson win the Golden Glove?: Alisson
KXWCAWARD-26GGLOVE-ALISS
Cluster 7
Will Unai Simon win the Golden Glove
Will Unai Simon win the Golden Glove?: Unai Simon
KXWCAWARD-26GGLOVE-USIMO
Cluster 8
Will Emiliano Martinez win the Golden Glove
Will Emiliano Martinez win the Golden Glove?: Emiliano Martinez
KXWCAWARD-26GGLOVE-EMART
Cluster 9
Will Kylian Mbappe win the Golden Ball
Will Kylian Mbappe win the Golden Ball?: Kylian Mbappe
KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-KMBAP
Cluster 10
Will Jordan Pickford win the Golden Glove
Will Jordan Pickford win the Golden Glove?: Jordan Pickford
KXWCAWARD-26GGLOVE-JPICK
Cluster 11
Will Diogo Costa win the Golden Glove
Will Diogo Costa win the Golden Glove?: Diogo Costa
KXWCAWARD-26GGLOVE-DCOST
Cluster 12
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball?: Bruno Fernandes
KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-BFERN
Cluster 13
Will Pedri win the Golden Ball
Will Pedri win the Golden Ball?: Pedri
KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-PEDRI
Analysis
This 34% probability reflects the market's assessment of Lamine Yamal's chances of winning the Best Young Player Award at the next major football tournament or award ceremony. Yamal's probability is shaped by his current form and age as a young prospect, balanced against competition from other emerging talents. The award recognition depends primarily on his sustained performance level over the relevant competition period and comparative standout moments against other eligible young players. The next major international tournament or season conclusion would be the key event determining whether Yamal accumulates the performances and visibility needed to claim this award over competing candidates.
- ›Yamal's playing time and performance statistics relative to other young player nominees during the award eligibility period
- ›Competition intensity from other young players who may have higher profile moments or breakthrough seasons during the same timeframe
- ›Tournament results and individual standout performances by Yamal in any major competitions held during the voting period
- ›Media coverage and voting patterns from previous similar awards to assess typical selection criteria and voting bloc patterns
- ›Age eligibility thresholds and specific award criteria set by the awarding organization for the upcoming year
What moved the line
- May 22Unai Simon↓7pp15→8¢ · Kalshi
- May 23Bruno Fernandes↑5pp3→8¢ · Kalshi
- May 23Lamine Yamal↑3pp4→7¢ · Kalshi
- May 26Lamine Yamal↓3pp7→4¢ · Kalshi
- May 27Lamine Yamal↑3pp4→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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