SimpleFunctions

Houston · KXNCAAMBTOPAPRANK-26W1T10

Houston is priced at 20¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 21¢ bid, 83¢ ask, 62¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 16 inside KXNCAAMBTOPAPRANK-26W1T10.

Price history

20¢ current

1¢
20¢25¢
May 2, 2026May 17, 2026

Contract brief

If Houston is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Houston

Rank

#7 of 16

Leader

Illinois 76¢

Range

1¢-76¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXNCAAMBTOPAPRANK-26W1T10-HOU

May 24, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 17m ago

Implied probability

20¢
Latest venue quote
May 24, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 17m ago

Bid

21¢

Ask

83¢

Spread

62¢

Reported volume

$17

Family rank

#7 of 16

16 outcomes · KXNCAAMBTOPAPRANK-26W1T10

Closes

Dec 29, 2026

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

21 / 83¢

Kalshi
62¢ spread
BidSize
21¢5
20¢199
6¢42
5¢324
AskSize
83¢5
84¢799
98¢1.1K
99¢260

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Houston is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 29, 2026

Identifier

KXNCAAMBTOPAPRANK-26W1T10-HOU

SF Signal
SF Index
313.83
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

627.7%

IY (No)

44.4%

Adj IY

314%

CRI

4

Overround

3.7%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

627.7%
44.4%
Adj IY
314%
4
Overround
3.7%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.