Will Houston be a top 10 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 51% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
51%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
17 contracts
Closes
Dec 29, 2026
234 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
16 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “Will Michigan” vs “Will Duke be a top 25 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Michigan
Will Michigan be a top 25 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Michigan
KXNCAAMBTOPAPRANK-26W1T25-MICH
Will Michigan St. be a top 25 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Michigan St.
KXNCAAMBTOPAPRANK-26W1T25-MSU
Cluster 2
Will Duke be a top 25 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Will Duke be a top 25 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Duke
KXNCAAMBTOPAPRANK-26W1T25-DUKE
Cluster 3
Will Arizona be a top 25 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 4
Will Houston be a top 25 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 5
Will UConn be a top 25 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 6
Will Arkansas be a top 25 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 7
Will Illinois be a top 25 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 8
Will Louisville be a top 25 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 9
Will Tennessee be a top 25 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 10
Will Texas be a top 25 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Will Texas be a top 25 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Texas
KXNCAAMBTOPAPRANK-26W1T25-TEX
Cluster 11
Will North Carolina be a top 25 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 12
Will Gonzaga be a top 25 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 13
Will Purdue be a top 25 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Will Purdue be a top 25 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Purdue
KXNCAAMBTOPAPRANK-26W1T25-PUR
Cluster 14
Will Virginia be a top 25 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 15
Will Texas A&M be a top 25 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 16
Will Florida be a top 25 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Analysis
This market estimates a 49% probability that Houston's basketball team will be ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll's Week 1 preseason rankings for the 2026-27 season. Houston's standing depends primarily on their offseason roster changes, injury status of key players, and how voters perceive their returning talent relative to other programs. The main driver of the current even-odds probability is uncertainty around player retention and transfer portal activity, which historically shapes preseason expectations. The AP Poll Week 1 rankings will be released in late October 2026, which is when this market resolves.
- ›Houston's roster composition following the offseason transfer portal and recruitment period
- ›Status of Houston's returning core players and any injury developments before preseason rankings
- ›Voter perception of Houston's recent tournament performance and program trajectory
- ›Competition level among peer programs vying for top-10 preseason positions
- ›Any coaching staff changes or program news affecting Houston's perceived 2026-27 potential
What moved the line
- May 6Texas A&M↓22pp26→4¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Arizona↑3pp73→76¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.