I’m So Happy by Ms. Rachel have above 50000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026 tracking week
Above 50K is priced at 35¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 35¢ bid, 44¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 7 inside Will I’m So Happy by Ms. Rachel have above.
Price history
35¢ current
+34¢Contract brief
If I’m So Happy by Ms. Rachel has above 50K Album Equivalent Units during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 50K
Rank
#5 of 7
Leader
Above 10K 82¢
Range
20¢-82¢
Family volume
$58
Identifier
KXALBUMEQUIV-IMS26OCT01-50K
Aug 25, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 1h ago
Implied probability
Bid
35¢
Ask
44¢
Spread
9¢
Reported volume
$50
Family rank
#5 of 7
7 outcomes · Will I’m So Happy by Ms. Rachel have above
Closes
Oct 4, 2026
Family volume
$58
Orderbook snapshot
35 / 44¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If I’m So Happy by Ms. Rachel has above 50K Album Equivalent Units during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 4, 2026
Identifier
KXALBUMEQUIV-IMS26OCT01-50K
Event family
Will I’m So Happy by Ms. Rachel have above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$58
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Above 10K 82¢
Current share
0%
Above 10K
kalshi · KXALBUMEQUIV-IMS26OCT01-10K
Above 20K
kalshi · KXALBUMEQUIV-IMS26OCT01-20K
Above 30K
kalshi · KXALBUMEQUIV-IMS26OCT01-30K
Above 40K
kalshi · KXALBUMEQUIV-IMS26OCT01-40K
Above 50K
kalshi · KXALBUMEQUIV-IMS26OCT01-50K
Above 75K
kalshi · KXALBUMEQUIV-IMS26OCT01-75K
Above 100K
kalshi · KXALBUMEQUIV-IMS26OCT01-100K
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Volatility Arbitrage in Prediction Markets: Why Political Favorites Above 60¢ Are Systematically Underconfident
A binary contract at price p has variance p(1-p). Le 2026 (292M trades) finds political markets underconfident at slopes 0.93-1.83 — meaning a 70¢ contract corresponds to a true probability near 83%. Four systematic vol-arb trades follow from the calibration evidence.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 35% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.