Before Jan 1, 2027 · Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 202
Before Jan 1, 2027 is priced at 19¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 3 inside Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 202.
Price history
19¢ current
+17¢Contract brief
If the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2027
Rank
#3 of 3
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2029 34¢
Range
15¢-34¢
Family volume
$295
Identifier
KXBLUESLIP-26-27JAN01
Jun 21, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
15¢
Ask
20¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$54
Family rank
#3 of 3
3 outcomes · Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 202
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$295
Orderbook snapshot
15 / 20¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXBLUESLIP-26-27JAN01
Event family
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 202.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$295
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2029 34¢
Current share
18%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 19% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.