Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028
Leader sits at 35% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 33%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2029
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
33¢
Before Jan 1, 2028
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
924 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 202
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXBLUESLIP-26-27JAN01
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2029?: Before Jan 1, 2029
KXBLUESLIP-26-29JAN01
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXBLUESLIP-26-28JAN01
Analysis
This question asks whether the Senate Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing for, or vote to report, a district-court or U.S. attorney nominee from a state where the home-state senator hasn't submitted an affirmative blue slip by early 2029. The 18% probability reflects the traditional strength of the blue-slip custom, which has historically constrained judicial nominations from progressing without home-state senator support. The probability increases across the three time horizons (7% by 2027, 13% by 2028, 18% by 2029), suggesting modest expectations that this norm may erode over time. Key drivers include Senate dynamics around judicial confirmations, shifts in how both parties treat blue-slip practices, and whether court vacancies create political pressure to bypass traditional gatekeeping. The resolution depends on reported committee actions matching the specified criteria before January 1, 2029.
- ›Historical blue-slip enforcement: Senate Judiciary Committee has typically not advanced judicial nominations without affirmative blue slips, though recent administrations have occasionally tested these limits
- ›Current Senate composition and majority party stance on judicial nominations: Whether the majority views blue slips as binding custom versus advisory practice
- ›Number and visibility of available vacancies in federal judiciary: Fewer urgent vacancies reduce pressure to bypass nomination procedures
- ›Precedent from 2017-2021 and subsequent years: Observable pattern of whether committees held hearings or voted despite missing blue slips
- ›Political calendar and nomination pace: Slower nomination throughput reduces probability of encountering blue-slip disputes by January 2029
What moved the line
- Jun 18Before Jan 1, 2028↑18pp9→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Before Jan 1, 2029↑12pp15→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Before Jan 1, 2027↑11pp6→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Before Jan 1, 2027↑3pp3→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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