Will Jack Schlossberg be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will Jack Schlossberg be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The market is pricing Jack Schlossberg at just 18¢ despite an extraordinarily high implied yield of 888% on the Yes side, suggesting extreme underpricing relative to the binary outcome structure—though this likely reflects genuine long-shot odds rather than an arbitrage opportunity.
Analysis
The market is pricing Jack Schlossberg at just 18¢ despite an extraordinarily high implied yield of 888% on the Yes side, suggesting extreme underpricing relative to the binary outcome structure—though this likely reflects genuine long-shot odds rather than an arbitrage opportunity. Volume is modest at $566 in 24 hours against $47k open interest, and the 734% realized volatility indicates this market has experienced substantial price swings, with the price climbing 2 cents over the past week in a neutral regime. The 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 close provides ample time for information arrival (averaging 1.0 per hour), though the elevated cliff risk index of 5 suggests potential for sharp repricing around key political events.
Resolution rules
If Jack Schlossberg wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NY-12 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNY12D-26-JSCH yes 100