Will Jamie Davis be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Louisiana
Will Jamie Davis be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Louisiana is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 96¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
99¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If Jamie Davis wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Louisiana Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will Jamie Davis be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Louisiana
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$18K
Identifier
KXSENATELAD-26-JDAV
Jun 25, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
96¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$550
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$18K
Orderbook snapshot
96 / 99¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Jamie Davis wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Louisiana Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXSENATELAD-26-JDAV
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$18K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Jamie Davis be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Louisiana 99¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.