SimpleFunctions

Jessica Williams · KXEMMYNOMS-26-CSACTR

Jessica Williams is priced at 95¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 94¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 12 inside KXEMMYNOMS-26-CSACTR.

Price history

95¢ current

+46¢
50¢75¢100¢
Jun 6, 2026Jun 24, 2026

Contract brief

If Jessica Williams is on the list of nominees for Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Jessica Williams

Rank

#2 of 12

Leader

Hannah Einbinder 95¢

Range

6¢-95¢

Family volume

$120

Identifier

KXEMMYNOMS-26-CSACTR-JES

Jun 26, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 16m ago

Implied probability

95¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 26, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 16m ago

Bid

94¢

Ask

99¢

Spread

Reported volume

$54

Family rank

#2 of 12

12 outcomes · KXEMMYNOMS-26-CSACTR

Closes

Jul 8, 2027

Family volume

$120

Orderbook snapshot

94 / 99¢

Kalshi
5¢ spread
BidSize
94¢100
93¢200
89¢2
2¢5.0K
AskSize
99¢50

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Jessica Williams is on the list of nominees for Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 8, 2027

Identifier

KXEMMYNOMS-26-CSACTR-JES

SF Signal
SF Index
757.24
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

6.2%

IY (No)

1514.5%

Adj IY

757%

CRI

16

Overround

5.5%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

6.2%
1514.5%
Adj IY
757%
16
Overround
5.5%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.