Joan Smalls · KXVSANGLES-26DEC31
Joan Smalls is priced at 82¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 80¢ bid, 86¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 16 inside KXVSANGLES-26DEC31.
Price history
82¢ current
+52¢Contract brief
If Joan Smalls is an official runway model at the Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Joan Smalls
Rank
#6 of 16
Leader
Adriana Lima 90¢
Range
28¢-90¢
Family volume
$10
Identifier
KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-JOA
Jun 26, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
80¢
Ask
86¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$501
Family rank
#6 of 16
16 outcomes · KXVSANGLES-26DEC31
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$10
Orderbook snapshot
80 / 86¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Joan Smalls is an official runway model at the Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-JOA
Event family
KXVSANGLES-26DEC31.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Adriana Lima 90¢
Current share
0%
Adriana Lima
kalshi · KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-ADR
Alex Consani
kalshi · KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-ALE
Anok Yai
kalshi · KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-ANO
Alessandra Ambrosio
kalshi · KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-ALL
Bella Hadid
kalshi · KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-BEL
Joan Smalls
kalshi · KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-JOA
Candice Swanepoel
kalshi · KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-CAN
Doutzen Kroes
kalshi · KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-DOU
Daiane Sodre
kalshi · KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-DAI
Behati Prinsloo
kalshi · KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-BEH
Ashley Graham
kalshi · KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-ASH
Emily Ratajkowski
kalshi · KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-EMI
Barbara Palvin
kalshi · KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-BAR
Quen Blackwell
kalshi · KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-QUE
Barbie Ferreira
kalshi · KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-BARB
Angel Reese
kalshi · KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-ANG
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 82% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.