SimpleFunctions

Joe Burrow · KXNFLSEASONPASSTDS-27C40

Joe Burrow is priced at 31¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 20¢ bid, 31¢ ask, 11¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside KXNFLSEASONPASSTDS-27C40.

Price history

31¢ current

30¢35¢
Aug 27, 2026Aug 27, 2026

Contract brief

If Joe Burrow records 40+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Joe Burrow

Rank

#1 of 3

Leader

Joe Burrow 20¢

Range

12¢-20¢

Family volume

$75

Identifier

KXNFLSEASONPASSTDS-27C40-JBURROW9

Aug 27, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 12m ago

Implied probability

31¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 27, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 12m ago

Bid

20¢

Ask

31¢

Spread

11¢

24h volume

$75

Family rank

#1 of 3

3 outcomes · KXNFLSEASONPASSTDS-27C40

Closes

Feb 2, 2027

Family volume

$75

Orderbook snapshot

20 / 31¢

Kalshi
11¢ spread
BidSize
20¢200
6¢45
5¢113
AskSize
31¢1.4K
46¢100
81¢1.9K
84¢13
85¢300

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Joe Burrow records 40+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Feb 2, 2027

Identifier

KXNFLSEASONPASSTDS-27C40-JBURROW9

SF Signal
SF Index
458.00
Regime
taker

Event family

KXNFLSEASONPASSTDS-27C40.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$75

Outcomes

3

Highest price

Joe Burrow 20¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

916.0%

IY (No)

57.2%

Adj IY

458%

CRI

4

Overround

-0.5%

Regime

taker

Score

0.636

Observability

direct

Event type

sports

Full indicator table

916.0%
57.2%
Adj IY
458%
4
Overround
-0.5%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.