Will Cam Ward record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 72% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
72%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$32
14 contracts
Closes
Feb 2, 2027
165 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Aaron Rodgers record 2” vs “Will Dak Prescott record”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Aaron Rodgers record 2
Will Aaron Rodgers record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Aaron Rodgers
KXNFLSEASONPASSTDS-27C20-ARODGERS8
Will Aaron Rodgers record 25+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Aaron Rodgers
KXNFLSEASONPASSTDS-27C25-ARODGERS8
Cluster 2
Will Dak Prescott record
Will Dak Prescott record 25+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Dak Prescott
KXNFLSEASONPASSTDS-27C25-DPRESCOTT4
Will Dak Prescott record 30+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Dak Prescott
KXNFLSEASONPASSTDS-27C30-DPRESCOTT4
Cluster 3
Will Jared Goff record 40+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 4
Will Baker Mayfield record 25+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 5
Will Cam Ward record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 6
Will Joe Burrow record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 7
Will Jaxson Dart record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 8
Will Jordan Love record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 9
Will Tyler Shough record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 10
Will Josh Allen record 25+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 11
Will Matthew Stafford record 25+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 12
Will Patrick Mahomes record 25+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Analysis
This market assesses the likelihood that Cam Ward will throw 20 or more touchdown passes during the 2026-07 NFL regular season, currently priced at 60%. The probability reflects expectations about Ward's role, offensive system, and offensive line performance with his NFL team. Key drivers include the quality of his receiving corps, total passing volume relative to rushing attempts, and whether he secures a starting position immediately or shares duties early in the season. The probability will sharpen once the NFL season begins in September 2026 and actual performance data emerges; preseason games and roster finalization in early September will provide early signals about his role and usage patterns.
- ›Passing volume: 20+ TDs typically requires 4,000+ passing yards; context on Cam Ward's team's pass-heavy tendency versus ground-game emphasis
- ›Starting status: Whether Ward is the immediate starter or shares snaps significantly affects total passing opportunities across 17 games
- ›Receiving talent: Quality and health of his top three targets; WR1/2 performance and tight end availability directly correlate with TD production
- ›Team offense efficiency: Red zone conversion rates and overall scoring output; a low-scoring offense limits TD opportunities regardless of pass attempts
- ›Injury risk: Both Ward's durability and key offensive skill-position players; one injury to top receivers could alter target distribution and TD potential
What moved the line
- Aug 18Jaxson Dart↓23pp85→62¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Cam Ward↓9pp41→32¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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