Will Joe Keery be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios
Will Joe Keery be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
15¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If Joe Keery is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will Joe Keery be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$4K
Identifier
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-JOE
Sep 23, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 13m ago
Implied probability
Bid
11¢
Ask
14¢
Spread
3¢
Reported volume
$4K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
Family volume
$4K
Orderbook snapshot
11 / 14¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Joe Keery is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
Identifier
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-JOE
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Joe Keery be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios 15¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
cultural
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.