Will John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
Prediction markets currently give a 90% probability that Will John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?. This contract trades at 90¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market is pricing Sununu as an overwhelming favorite at 90¢ with extremely thin liquidity ($3,105 open interest and zero 24-hour volume), creating significant execution risk for any substantial position.
Analysis
This market is pricing Sununu as an overwhelming favorite at 90¢ with extremely thin liquidity ($3,105 open interest and zero 24-hour volume), creating significant execution risk for any substantial position. The asymmetric implied yields—27.2% for Yes versus 1217.7% for No—reflect the lopsided probability, though the extreme No yield suggests minimal market confidence in that outcome rather than genuine opportunity. With 201 days to expiration and a 77% realized volatility, the market appears to be pricing in genuine uncertainty despite the high nominal probability, though the lack of recent price movement (flat at 87¢ over seven days) and zero daily volume indicate this contract may be effectively dormant.
Also on polymarket at 89¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
If John E. Sununu wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II New Hampshire Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATENHR-26-JSUN yes 100