John Malkovich · KXVFILMFESTIVAL-COPP26
John Malkovich is priced at 16¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 10¢ bid, 15¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 6 inside KXVFILMFESTIVAL-COPP26.
Price history
16¢ current
+14¢Contract brief
If John Malkovich wins the Coppa Volpi for Best Actor at the 83rd Venice Festival , then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
John Malkovich
Rank
#2 of 6
Leader
Robert Pattinson 30¢
Range
2¢-30¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXVFILMFESTIVAL-COPP26-JOH
Aug 9, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 25m ago
Implied probability
Bid
10¢
Ask
15¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$524
Family rank
#2 of 6
6 outcomes · KXVFILMFESTIVAL-COPP26
Closes
Sep 13, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
10 / 15¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If John Malkovich wins the Coppa Volpi for Best Actor at the 83rd Venice Festival , then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 13, 2027
Identifier
KXVFILMFESTIVAL-COPP26-JOH
Event family
KXVFILMFESTIVAL-COPP26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Robert Pattinson 30¢
Current share
—
Robert Pattinson
kalshi · KXVFILMFESTIVAL-COPP26-ROB
John Malkovich
kalshi · KXVFILMFESTIVAL-COPP26-JOH
Guy Pearce
kalshi · KXVFILMFESTIVAL-COPP26-GUY
Zo In-sung
kalshi · KXVFILMFESTIVAL-COPP26-ZOI
Domhnall Gleeson
kalshi · KXVFILMFESTIVAL-COPP26-DOM
Tie
kalshi · KXVFILMFESTIVAL-COPP26-TIE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.