Will Wild Horse Nine win Golden Lion for Best Film award at the 83rd Venice Festival
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$542
19 contracts
Closes
Sep 13, 2027
401 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Primetime win Golden Lion for Best Film award at the 83rd Venice Festival
Will Primetime win Golden Lion for Best Film award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Primetime
KXVFILMFESTIVAL-GLI26-PRI
Cluster 2
Will Martin McDonagh win Venice Film Festival: Silver Lion – Award for Best Director award at the 83rd Venice Festival
Cluster 3
Will John Malkovich win Coppa Volpi for Best Actor award at the 83rd Venice Festival
Cluster 4
Will Lee Chang-dong win Venice Film Festival: Silver Lion – Award for Best Director award at the 83rd Venice Festival
Cluster 5
Will Alicia Vikander win Coppa Volpi for Best Actress award at the 83rd Venice Festival
Cluster 6
Will Claire Foy win Coppa Volpi for Best Actress award at the 83rd Venice Festival
Will Claire Foy win Coppa Volpi for Best Actress award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Claire Foy
KXVFILMFESTIVAL-COP26-CLA
Cluster 7
Will Kate Mara win Coppa Volpi for Best Actress award at the 83rd Venice Festival
Will Kate Mara win Coppa Volpi for Best Actress award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Kate Mara
KXVFILMFESTIVAL-COP26-KAT
Cluster 8
Will Parker Posey win Coppa Volpi for Best Actress award at the 83rd Venice Festival
Cluster 9
Will Penélope Cruz win Coppa Volpi for Best Actress award at the 83rd Venice Festival
Cluster 10
Will Rooney Mara win Coppa Volpi for Best Actress award at the 83rd Venice Festival
Cluster 11
Will Tie win Coppa Volpi for Best Actress award at the 83rd Venice Festival
Will Tie win Coppa Volpi for Best Actress award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Tie
KXVFILMFESTIVAL-COP26-TIE
Cluster 12
Will Zoé Monpart win Coppa Volpi for Best Actress award at the 83rd Venice Festival
Cluster 13
Will Domhnall Gleeson win Coppa Volpi for Best Actor award at the 83rd Venice Festival
Cluster 14
Will Guy Pearce win Coppa Volpi for Best Actor award at the 83rd Venice Festival
Will Guy Pearce win Coppa Volpi for Best Actor award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Guy Pearce
KXVFILMFESTIVAL-COPP26-GUY
Cluster 15
Will Robert Pattinson win Coppa Volpi for Best Actor award at the 83rd Venice Festival
Cluster 16
Will Zo In-sung win Coppa Volpi for Best Actor award at the 83rd Venice Festival
Will Zo In-sung win Coppa Volpi for Best Actor award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Zo In-sung
KXVFILMFESTIVAL-COPP26-ZOI
Cluster 17
Will G-Neung-Han Sa_Rang (Possible Love) win Golden Lion for Best Film award at the 83rd Venice Festival
Cluster 18
Will Look Back win Golden Lion for Best Film award at the 83rd Venice Festival
Will Look Back win Golden Lion for Best Film award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Look Back
KXVFILMFESTIVAL-GLI26-LOO
Cluster 19
Will Nelson san, anata ha hito wo koroshimashitaka? (Mr. Nelson, Did You Kill People?) win Golden Lion for Best Film award at the 83rd Venice Festival
Analysis
This represents the market's estimated likelihood that the film 'Wild Horse Nine' will receive the Golden Lion award at the 83rd Venice Film Festival, currently priced at 12%. The probability reflects uncertainty about which film will be selected by the festival jury among all competing entries. The level is driven by the film's profile and critical reception relative to other contenders, as well as Venice's historical selection patterns across different genres and production origins. The outcome will be definitively determined when the festival announces its award winners in September 2026, at which point this contract either resolves to full value or expires worthless. Prior festival selections and the strength of this year's overall competition pool are the primary factors shaping current expectations.
- ›Wild Horse Nine's estimated odds (12%) place it outside the top tier of favorites but suggest meaningful recognition in market assessments
- ›Related contracts show other films like Primetime trading at 8% for the same award, indicating distributed expectations across multiple potential winners
- ›The 83rd Venice Film Festival award ceremony occurs in September 2026, providing a fixed resolution date
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume on this contract indicates minimal recent price movement and limited market activity updating the valuation
- ›Wild Horse Nine trades at 16% for the Silver Lion Grand Jury Prize, suggesting different perceived likelihoods depending on award category
What moved the line
- Aug 6Robert Pattinson↑16pp10→26¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Primetime↑5pp9→14¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Tie↑3pp2→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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