SimpleFunctions

Josh Allen · KXNFLSEASONPASSYDS-27C3500

Josh Allen is priced at 78¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 57¢ bid, 84¢ ask, 27¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside KXNFLSEASONPASSYDS-27C3500.

Price history

78¢ current

+32¢
50¢75¢
Aug 18, 2026Sep 12, 2026

Contract brief

If Josh Allen records 3500+ passing yards during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Josh Allen

Rank

#4 of 16

Leader

Dak Prescott 65¢

Range

6¢-65¢

Family volume

$2K

Identifier

KXNFLSEASONPASSYDS-27C3500-JALLEN17

Sep 17, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 25m ago

Implied probability

78¢
Latest venue quote
Sep 17, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 25m ago

Bid

57¢

Ask

84¢

Spread

27¢

Reported volume

$2K

Family rank

#4 of 16

16 outcomes · KXNFLSEASONPASSYDS-27C3500

Closes

Feb 2, 2027

Family volume

$2K

Orderbook snapshot

57 / 84¢

Kalshi
27¢ spread
BidSize
57¢2
56¢5
52¢209
39¢90
13¢43
AskSize
84¢5
85¢200
91¢2
95¢13
96¢90

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Josh Allen records 3500+ passing yards during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Feb 2, 2027

Identifier

KXNFLSEASONPASSYDS-27C3500-JALLEN17

SF Signal
SF Index
148.73
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

233.9%

IY (No)

297.5%

Adj IY

149%

CRI

1

Overround

7.2%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

233.9%
297.5%
Adj IY
149%
1
Overround
7.2%

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SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.