Josh Turek receive at least 78% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Johnson County, Iowa
At least 78% is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 8 inside Will Josh Turek receive at least.
Price history
13¢ current
+7¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Josh Turek in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Johnson County, Iowa is 78% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 78%
Rank
#6 of 8
Leader
At least 68% 83¢
Range
3¢-83¢
Family volume
$3K
Identifier
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATEIA26JOHNSONJTUR-78
Sep 20, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$200
Family rank
#6 of 8
8 outcomes · Will Josh Turek receive at least
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$3K
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Josh Turek in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Johnson County, Iowa is 78% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATEIA26JOHNSONJTUR-78
Event family
Will Josh Turek receive at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
At least 68% 83¢
Current share
6%
At least 68%
kalshi · KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATEIA26JOHNSONJTUR-68
At least 70%
kalshi · KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATEIA26JOHNSONJTUR-70
At least 72%
kalshi · KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATEIA26JOHNSONJTUR-72
At least 74%
kalshi · KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATEIA26JOHNSONJTUR-74
At least 76%
kalshi · KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATEIA26JOHNSONJTUR-76
At least 78%
kalshi · KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATEIA26JOHNSONJTUR-78
At least 82%
kalshi · KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATEIA26JOHNSONJTUR-82
At least 80%
kalshi · KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATEIA26JOHNSONJTUR-80
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.