Before October · Will Justin Bieber release SWAG 3 before
Before October is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Will Justin Bieber release SWAG 3 before.
Price history
7¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If Justin Bieber releases an album titled SWAG 3 before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before October
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Before October 5¢
Range
2¢-5¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXALBUMRELEASEDATEJB-SWAG3-OCT01-26
Jul 11, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
10¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$4K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Will Justin Bieber release SWAG 3 before
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 10¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Justin Bieber releases an album titled SWAG 3 before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Identifier
KXALBUMRELEASEDATEJB-SWAG3-OCT01-26
Event family
Will Justin Bieber release SWAG 3 before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Before October 5¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
cultural
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.