800,000 or more · Will KaiCenat reach
800,000 or more is priced at 21¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 13¢ bid, 21¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 6 inside Will KaiCenat reach.
Price history
21¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
If KaiCenat's peak number of active paid Twitch subscribers is at least 800000 at any time before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
800,000 or more
Rank
#3 of 6
Leader
600,000 or more 16¢
Range
8¢-16¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXTWITCHSUBSKAICENAT-27JAN01-800000
Jun 29, 2026, 12:38 AM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
13¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
8¢
Reported volume
$4
Family rank
#3 of 6
6 outcomes · Will KaiCenat reach
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
13 / 21¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If KaiCenat's peak number of active paid Twitch subscribers is at least 800000 at any time before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXTWITCHSUBSKAICENAT-27JAN01-800000
Event family
Will KaiCenat reach.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
6
Highest price
600,000 or more 16¢
Current share
—
600,000 or more
kalshi · KXTWITCHSUBSKAICENAT-27JAN01-600000
700,000 or more
kalshi · KXTWITCHSUBSKAICENAT-27JAN01-700000
800,000 or more
kalshi · KXTWITCHSUBSKAICENAT-27JAN01-800000
1,000,000 or more
kalshi · KXTWITCHSUBSKAICENAT-27JAN01-1000000
1,100,000 or more
kalshi · KXTWITCHSUBSKAICENAT-27JAN01-1100000
1,200,000 or more
kalshi · KXTWITCHSUBSKAICENAT-27JAN01-1200000
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 21% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.