Kaja Kallas · KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99
Kaja Kallas is priced at 5¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 9¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 8 inside KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99.
Price history
5¢ current
−7¢Contract brief
If Kaja Kallas formally holds the position of Secretary General of NATO, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Kaja Kallas
Rank
#5 of 8
Leader
Alexander Stubb 12¢
Range
4¢-12¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-KKAL
Jul 9, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$569
Family rank
#5 of 8
8 outcomes · KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99
Closes
Jan 8, 2099
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 9¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Kaja Kallas formally holds the position of Secretary General of NATO, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 8, 2099
Identifier
KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-KKAL
Event family
KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Alexander Stubb 12¢
Current share
—
Alexander Stubb
kalshi · KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-ASTU
Keir Starmer
kalshi · KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-KSTA
Klaus Iohannis
kalshi · KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-KIOH
Petr Pavel
kalshi · KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-PPAV
Kaja Kallas
kalshi · KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-KKAL
Ben Wallace
kalshi · KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-BWAL
Mette Frederiksen
kalshi · KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-MFRE
Ursula von der Leyen
kalshi · KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-ULEY
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.