SimpleFunctions

Lamar Jackson · KXNFLSEASONPASSYDS-27C3000

Lamar Jackson is priced at 44¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 55¢ bid, 85¢ ask, 30¢ spread. This outcome ranks #13 of 16 inside KXNFLSEASONPASSYDS-27C3000.

Price history

44¢ current

10¢
50¢75¢
Sep 2, 2026Sep 19, 2026

Contract brief

If Lamar Jackson records 3000+ passing yards during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Lamar Jackson

Rank

#13 of 16

Leader

Brock Purdy 85¢

Range

25¢-85¢

Family volume

$1K

Identifier

KXNFLSEASONPASSYDS-27C3000-LJACKSON8

Sep 20, 2026, 7:38 PM UTC · 1m ago

Implied probability

44¢
Latest venue quote
Sep 20, 2026, 7:38 PM UTC · 1m ago

Bid

55¢

Ask

85¢

Spread

30¢

Reported volume

$362

Family rank

#13 of 16

16 outcomes · KXNFLSEASONPASSYDS-27C3000

Closes

Feb 2, 2027

Family volume

$1K

Orderbook snapshot

55 / 85¢

Kalshi
30¢ spread
BidSize
55¢160
52¢101
48¢100
44¢130
40¢240
AskSize
85¢242
93¢1
97¢49
98¢768
99¢500

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Lamar Jackson records 3000+ passing yards during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Feb 2, 2027

Identifier

KXNFLSEASONPASSYDS-27C3000-LJACKSON8

SF Signal
SF Index
172.30
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

344.6%

IY (No)

212.7%

Adj IY

172%

CRI

1

Overround

15.0%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

344.6%
212.7%
Adj IY
172%
1
Overround
15.0%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.