Will Caleb Williams record 3500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$513
17 contracts
Closes
Feb 2, 2027
181 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Caleb Williams record” vs “Will Jared Goff record”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Caleb Williams record
Will Caleb Williams record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Caleb Williams
KXNFLSEASONPASSYDS-27C4000-CWILLIAMS18
Will Caleb Williams record 3000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Caleb Williams
KXNFLSEASONPASSYDS-27C3000-CWILLIAMS18
Cluster 2
Will Jared Goff record
Will Jared Goff record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Jared Goff
KXNFLSEASONPASSYDS-27C4000-JGOFF16
Will Jared Goff record 3000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Jared Goff
KXNFLSEASONPASSYDS-27C3000-JGOFF16
Cluster 3
Will Drake Maye record
Will Drake Maye record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Drake Maye
KXNFLSEASONPASSYDS-27C4000-DMAYE10
Will Drake Maye record 3000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Drake Maye
KXNFLSEASONPASSYDS-27C3000-DMAYE10
Cluster 4
Will Bo Nix record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 5
Will Justin Herbert record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 6
Will Trevor Lawrence record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 7
Will Patrick Mahomes record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 8
Will Baker Mayfield record 3000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 9
Will Brock Purdy record 3000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 10
Will Bryce Young record 3000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 11
Will Dak Prescott record 3000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 12
Will Fernando Mendoza record 3000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 13
Will Josh Allen record 3000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 14
Will Jalen Hurts record 3000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Analysis
This contract measures whether Caleb Williams will exceed 3,500 passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season. At 9%, the market prices this as unlikely for a second-year quarterback. Williams would need to maintain high volume and efficiency over 17 games, outcomes affected by team passing scheme, offensive line health, and receiver availability. Comparison markets show even established quarterbacks face low probabilities at this threshold—Dak Prescott trades at 20% and Jared Goff at 3%. The resolution depends on final 2026 season statistics, with clarity arriving in early 2027 after the regular season concludes in early January.
- ›Caleb Williams completed his rookie 2025 season; second-year development trajectory and actual passing volume are unknown variables
- ›3,500 yards over 17 games requires ~206 yards per game; this threshold excludes a significant portion of NFL starters annually
- ›Chicago Bears' offensive scheme, particularly run-pass balance and play-calling tendencies under head coaching staff, directly determines passing attempts available
- ›Injury status of Williams, offensive line, and receiving corps through 2026 season materially affects completion percentage and yardage output
- ›Historical precedent shows only 15-20 qualified starters typically exceed 3,500 yards annually across the entire NFL
What moved the line
- Jul 29Justin Herbert↓28pp34→6¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Justin Herbert↓14pp16→2¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 31Justin Herbert↑13pp8→21¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Jared Goff↓11pp52→41¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Jared Goff↑9pp43→52¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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