Will Caleb Williams record 3500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
3 contracts
Closes
Feb 2, 2027
254 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Caleb Williams record 3500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 2
Will Dak Prescott record 3500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 3
Will Jared Goff record 3500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Analysis
This contract measures whether Caleb Williams will exceed 3,500 passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season. At 9%, the market prices this as unlikely for a second-year quarterback. Williams would need to maintain high volume and efficiency over 17 games, outcomes affected by team passing scheme, offensive line health, and receiver availability. Comparison markets show even established quarterbacks face low probabilities at this threshold—Dak Prescott trades at 20% and Jared Goff at 3%. The resolution depends on final 2026 season statistics, with clarity arriving in early 2027 after the regular season concludes in early January.
- ›Caleb Williams completed his rookie 2025 season; second-year development trajectory and actual passing volume are unknown variables
- ›3,500 yards over 17 games requires ~206 yards per game; this threshold excludes a significant portion of NFL starters annually
- ›Chicago Bears' offensive scheme, particularly run-pass balance and play-calling tendencies under head coaching staff, directly determines passing attempts available
- ›Injury status of Williams, offensive line, and receiving corps through 2026 season materially affects completion percentage and yardage output
- ›Historical precedent shows only 15-20 qualified starters typically exceed 3,500 yards annually across the entire NFL
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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