Will Larry Rhoden be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Dakota?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Larry Rhoden be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Dakota?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The market is pricing Rhoden at just 20% despite a dramatic 58% price surge over seven days (12¢ to 19¢), suggesting recent positive news or shifting expectations among traders.
Analysis
The market is pricing Rhoden at just 20% despite a dramatic 58% price surge over seven days (12¢ to 19¢), suggesting recent positive news or shifting expectations among traders. The extreme 776% implied yield on the Yes side combined with modest $240 daily volume and $9.4k open interest indicates thin liquidity and potential overpricing of tail risk, typical of low-volume political nomination markets. With 201 days to expiration and a 508% realized volatility, this remains highly speculative territory where information arrival (0.9 events/hour) could easily swing the contract significantly.
Also on polymarket at 7¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
If Larry Rhoden wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 South Dakota Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVSDNOMR-26-LRHO yes 100