SimpleFunctions

Las Vegas win at least 3 games in the first 8 weeks

Las Vegas: 3+ wins in first 8 weeks is priced at 56¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 51¢ bid, 63¢ ask, 12¢ spread. This outcome ranks #12 of 16 inside KXNFLWINSWEEK-26W8.

Price history

56¢ current

+2¢
50¢60¢
Aug 13, 2026Aug 24, 2026

Contract brief

If the Las Vegas Pro Football wins at least 3 games in the first 8 weeks of the Pro Football season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Las Vegas: 3+ wins in first 8 weeks

Rank

#12 of 16

Leader

Los Angeles R: 2+ wins in first 8 weeks 94¢

Range

39¢-94¢

Family volume

$1K

Identifier

KXNFLWINSWEEK-26W8-LV3

Aug 25, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 15m ago

Implied probability

56¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 25, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 15m ago

Bid

51¢

Ask

63¢

Spread

12¢

Reported volume

$26

Family rank

#12 of 16

16 outcomes · KXNFLWINSWEEK-26W8

Closes

Nov 10, 2026

Family volume

$1K

Orderbook snapshot

51 / 63¢

Kalshi
12¢ spread
BidSize
51¢333
50¢333
49¢333
44¢5
36¢100
AskSize
63¢334
64¢334
65¢334
74¢100
91¢1.2K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the Las Vegas Pro Football wins at least 3 games in the first 8 weeks of the Pro Football season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Nov 10, 2026

Identifier

KXNFLWINSWEEK-26W8-LV3

SF Signal
SF Index
245.31
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXNFLWINSWEEK-26W8.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$1K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Los Angeles R: 2+ wins in first 8 weeks 94¢

Current share

0%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

452.9%

IY (No)

490.6%

Adj IY

245%

CRI

1

Overround

108.6%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

452.9%
490.6%
Adj IY
245%
1
Overround
108.6%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.