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Legislation that decouples New York tax law from the federal Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS) gain exclusion under IRC §1202 become law in New York before Jan 1, 2027

Yes is priced at 6¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 6¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 14¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.

Price history

6¢ current

5¢10¢
May 9, 2026Jun 4, 2026

Contract brief

If legislation that decouples New York tax law from the federal Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS) gain exclusion under IRC §1202 has become law in New York before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Yes

Rank

Standalone

Leader

Range

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXNYQSBS-27JAN01

Jun 7, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 24m ago

Implied probability

6¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 7, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 24m ago

Bid

Ask

20¢

Spread

14¢

Reported volume

$2K

Family rank

Standalone

Standalone contract

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

6 / 20¢

Kalshi
14¢ spread
BidSize
100¢63
100¢46
6¢232
5¢417
AskSize
20¢1.0K
89¢4.4K
90¢700
99¢100

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If legislation that decouples New York tax law from the federal Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS) gain exclusion under IRC §1202 has become law in New York before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXNYQSBS-27JAN01

SF Signal
SF Index
1378.23
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXNYQSBS-27JAN01.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$0

Outcomes

1

Highest price

Yes 6¢

Current share

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Yes

kalshi · KXNYQSBS-27JAN01

6¢
$0$0

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

2756.5%
11.2%
Adj IY
1378%
16

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.