Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · KXBRBALLOT-26
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is priced at 96¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 97¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 5 inside KXBRBALLOT-26.
Price history
96¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is on the official ballot for the next Brazilian Presidential election first round, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Rank
#1 of 5
Leader
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 97¢
Range
1¢-97¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXBRBALLOT-26-LULA
Aug 23, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
97¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$68K
Family rank
#1 of 5
5 outcomes · KXBRBALLOT-26
Closes
Oct 4, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
97 / 99¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is on the official ballot for the next Brazilian Presidential election first round, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 4, 2026
Identifier
KXBRBALLOT-26-LULA
Event family
KXBRBALLOT-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 97¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.