Will Mandela Barnes endorse No one in the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race before Aug 11, 2026
Will Mandela Barnes endorse No one in the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race before Aug 11, 2026 is priced at 95¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 95¢ bid, 96¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
95¢ current
+47¢Contract brief
If Mandela Barnes publicly endorses No one in the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race before Aug 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will Mandela Barnes endorse No one in the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race before Aug 11, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$3K
Identifier
KXBARNESENDORSE-26AUG11-NOONE
Aug 9, 2026, 8:21 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
95¢
Ask
96¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$232
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
Family volume
$3K
Orderbook snapshot
95 / 96¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Mandela Barnes publicly endorses No one in the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race before Aug 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
Identifier
KXBARNESENDORSE-26AUG11-NOONE
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Mandela Barnes endorse No one in the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race before Aug 11, 2026 95¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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Prediction Market Index
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Event Probability API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.