Will Mandela Barnes endorse David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race before Aug 11, 2026
Leader sits at 81% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
No one
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
David Crowley
Spread
72pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$800
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
3 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Mandela Barnes endorse
Will Mandela Barnes endorse No one in the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race before Aug 11, 2026?: No one
KXBARNESENDORSE-26AUG11-NOONE
Will Mandela Barnes endorse Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race before Aug 11, 2026?: Francesca Hong
KXBARNESENDORSE-26AUG11-FHON
Will Mandela Barnes endorse David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race before Aug 11, 2026?: David Crowley
KXBARNESENDORSE-26AUG11-DCRO
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that Wisconsin's former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes will endorse David Crowley specifically in the 2026 gubernatorial race by August 11, 2026. Currently priced at 16%, it reflects market sentiment that Barnes is more likely to remain neutral or endorse someone else. The probability is shaped by Barnes' public positioning within Wisconsin Democratic politics, his relationship to Crowley relative to other candidates like Francesca Hong, and his historical tendency to make or withhold endorsements. The dominant outcome (77%) suggests market participants expect no Crowley endorsement before the August 11 deadline. The critical catalyst is any public statement or campaign event by Barnes before that date, particularly activities around the state Democratic convention or primary season.
- ›Barnes' prior public statements or social media regarding Crowley, Hong, or other 2026 Democratic gubernatorial candidates
- ›Timing of major campaign events or endorsement announcements by Democratic candidates before August 11
- ›Historical pattern of when and to whom Barnes typically grants political endorsements
- ›Whether Barnes holds an official party position that might constrain or enable early endorsements
- ›Distance between August 11 and Wisconsin's primary election date, and whether endorsements typically cluster around specific dates
What moved the line
- Aug 4No one↑7pp68→75¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3No one↓6pp74→68¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7No one↑5pp73→78¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Francesca Hong↓5pp11→6¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2No one↓4pp78→74¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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