Before Jan 1, 2027 · Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela before
Before Jan 1, 2027 is priced at 26¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 27¢ bid, 77¢ ask, 50¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela before.
Price history
26¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If María Corina Machado has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2027
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2027 24¢
Range
2¢-24¢
Family volume
$33
Identifier
KXMACHADOVENEZUELA-26JUN29-JAN01
Sep 23, 2026, 12:38 AM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
27¢
Ask
77¢
Spread
50¢
24h volume
$103
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela before
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$33
Orderbook snapshot
27 / 77¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If María Corina Machado has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXMACHADOVENEZUELA-26JUN29-JAN01
Event family
Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$33
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2027 24¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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Related readings
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 26% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.