Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 48% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
14¢
Before Oct 1, 2026
Spread
34pp
contested
24h volume
$71
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
151 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela before
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 53% chance that María Corina Machado will physically return to Venezuela by the end of 2026, with only 25% probability for a visit before August 1. Machado, a prominent Venezuelan opposition figure, has faced significant political and legal obstacles to returning to her home country. The probability reflects ongoing uncertainty about whether security conditions, diplomatic negotiations, or political developments would enable or prevent her entry before year-end. Near-term catalysts include announced travel plans, changes in Venezuela's government stance toward opposition figures, or shifts in regional political dynamics. Longer timeframes show lower probability, suggesting market participants expect any return to occur relatively soon or not at all through 2026.
- ›Machado's current location and stated travel plans or timeline for Venezuela return
- ›Venezuelan government's position on allowing opposition figures to enter; any changes in detention, arrest warrant, or travel ban policies
- ›Timing of scheduled political events or negotiations in Venezuela that might coincide with her return
- ›Security and safety conditions for high-profile opposition members attempting to enter Venezuela
- ›Outcome of related Kalshi contracts showing very low probability (25%) for August 1 visit, suggesting market expects any trip to occur in final months of 2026 or not at all
What moved the line
- Aug 2Before Oct 1, 2026↓17pp28→11¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Before Oct 1, 2026↑5pp11→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 31Before Jan 1, 2027↑5pp46→51¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Before Oct 1, 2026↓3pp31→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 29Before Jan 1, 2027↓3pp51→48¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (48% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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