Mariana di Girolamo · KXOSCARSUPACTR-27
Mariana di Girolamo is priced at 5¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 14 inside KXOSCARSUPACTR-27.
Price history
5¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If Mariana di Girolamo has won Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Mariana di Girolamo
Rank
#7 of 14
Leader
Inde Navarrette 14¢
Range
1¢-14¢
Family volume
$658
Identifier
KXOSCARSUPACTR-27-MARI
Jun 25, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 50m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
8¢
Spread
3¢
Reported volume
$320
Family rank
#7 of 14
14 outcomes · KXOSCARSUPACTR-27
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Family volume
$658
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 8¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Mariana di Girolamo has won Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Identifier
KXOSCARSUPACTR-27-MARI
Event family
KXOSCARSUPACTR-27.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$658
Outcomes
14
Highest price
Inde Navarrette 14¢
Current share
0%
Inde Navarrette
kalshi · KXOSCARSUPACTR-27-IND
Gemma Chan
kalshi · KXOSCARSUPACTR-27-GEM
Sandra Hüller
kalshi · KXOSCARSUPACTR-27-SAN
Danielle Deadwyler
kalshi · KXOSCARSUPACTR-27-DAN
Margaret Qualley
kalshi · KXOSCARSUPACTR-27-MAR
Anne Hathaway
kalshi · KXOSCARSUPACTR-27-ANN
Mariana di Girolamo
kalshi · KXOSCARSUPACTR-27-MARI
Parker Posey
kalshi · KXOSCARSUPACTR-27-PAR
Penélope Cruz
kalshi · KXOSCARSUPACTR-27-PEN
Tie
kalshi · KXOSCARSUPACTR-27-TIE
Betty Gilpin
kalshi · KXOSCARSUPACTR-27-BET
Isabella Rossellini
kalshi · KXOSCARSUPACTR-27-ISA
Tao Okamoto
kalshi · KXOSCARSUPACTR-27-TAO
Zendaya
kalshi · KXOSCARSUPACTR-27-ZEN
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.