Matthew Williams · KXAKPRIMARY-26MAY19
Matthew Williams is priced at 37¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 36¢ bid, 41¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 5 inside KXAKPRIMARY-26MAY19.
Price history
37¢ current
+21¢Contract brief
If Matthew Williams advances in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Matthew Williams
Rank
#5 of 5
Leader
Nicholas Begich 94¢
Range
36¢-94¢
Family volume
$211
Identifier
KXAKPRIMARY-26MAY19-MWIL
Jul 20, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
36¢
Ask
41¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$15
Family rank
#5 of 5
5 outcomes · KXAKPRIMARY-26MAY19
Closes
May 18, 2028
Family volume
$211
Orderbook snapshot
36 / 41¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Matthew Williams advances in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 18, 2028
Identifier
KXAKPRIMARY-26MAY19-MWIL
Event family
KXAKPRIMARY-26MAY19.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$211
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Nicholas Begich 94¢
Current share
7%
Nicholas Begich
kalshi · KXAKPRIMARY-26MAY19-NBEG
Bill Hill
kalshi · KXAKPRIMARY-26MAY19-BHIL
Matthew Schultz
kalshi · KXAKPRIMARY-26MAY19-MSCH
John Brendan Williams
kalshi · KXAKPRIMARY-26MAY19-JWIL
Matthew Williams
kalshi · KXAKPRIMARY-26MAY19-MWIL
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.