Melissa Bailey · KXNHPRIMARY-01R26
Melissa Bailey is priced at 5¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 1¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside KXNHPRIMARY-01R26.
Price history
5¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If Melissa Bailey wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 NH-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Melissa Bailey
Rank
#3 of 4
Leader
Anthony DiLorenzo 66¢
Range
1¢-66¢
Family volume
$115
Identifier
KXNHPRIMARY-01R26-MBAI
Jun 24, 2026, 7:31 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$19
Family rank
#3 of 4
4 outcomes · KXNHPRIMARY-01R26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$115
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Melissa Bailey wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 NH-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXNHPRIMARY-01R26-MBAI
Event family
KXNHPRIMARY-01R26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$115
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Anthony DiLorenzo 66¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.