Mikaela Shiffrin · KXESPYS-26BAWS
Mikaela Shiffrin is priced at 18¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 32¢ ask, 25¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 5 inside KXESPYS-26BAWS.
Price history
18¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If Mikaela Shiffrin wins Best Athlete, Women’s Sports at the the 2026 ESPYS, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Mikaela Shiffrin
Rank
#2 of 5
Leader
A’ja Wilson 66¢
Range
1¢-66¢
Family volume
$365
Identifier
KXESPYS-26BAWS-MIK
Jul 12, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
32¢
Spread
25¢
Reported volume
$801
Family rank
#2 of 5
5 outcomes · KXESPYS-26BAWS
Closes
Jul 16, 2027
Family volume
$365
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 32¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Mikaela Shiffrin wins Best Athlete, Women’s Sports at the the 2026 ESPYS, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 16, 2027
Identifier
KXESPYS-26BAWS-MIK
Event family
KXESPYS-26BAWS.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$365
Outcomes
5
Highest price
A’ja Wilson 66¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.