Will Mike Lindell be the Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will Mike Lindell be the Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The 18¢ price reflects a modest 18% probability, but the asymmetric payoff structure is striking—a Yes resolution yields 1118% while No yields only 29.6%, creating substantial cliff risk (index of 6) for contrarian bettors.
Analysis
The 18¢ price reflects a modest 18% probability, but the asymmetric payoff structure is striking—a Yes resolution yields 1118% while No yields only 29.6%, creating substantial cliff risk (index of 6) for contrarian bettors. With $18,133 open interest against just $1,358.50 in daily volume, liquidity is thin relative to position size, suggesting potential slippage on larger trades and concentration risk among existing holders. The market has held steady at 14¢ over seven days despite 201 days to expiry, indicating either consensus skepticism about Lindell's nomination prospects or limited new information flow into this relatively niche political event.
Also on polymarket at 13¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
If Mike Lindell wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Minnesota Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVMNNOMR-26-MLIN yes 100