Will Mike Lindell be the Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
28%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
3 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
131 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Mike Lindell be the Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota
Will Mike Lindell be the Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota?: Mike Lindell
KXGOVMNNOMR-26-MLIN
Cluster 2
Will Kendall Qualls be the Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota
Will Kendall Qualls be the Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota?: Kendall Qualls
KXGOVMNNOMR-26-KQUA
Cluster 3
Will Lisa Demuth be the Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota
Will Lisa Demuth be the Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota?: Lisa Demuth
KXGOVMNNOMR-26-LDEM
Analysis
This represents the current market expectation that Mike Lindell, the MyPillow CEO and prominent Trump supporter, will win the Republican nomination for Minnesota Governor. The 49% probability reflects significant uncertainty, suggesting the market views this as a close call. Factors pushing this probability up include Lindell's national profile and deep pockets for self-funding a campaign, while factors pushing it down include his polarizing public image, limited Minnesota political infrastructure, and potential competition from established state Republicans. The Minnesota GOP primary and any major campaign developments will be critical in resolving this uncertainty. Key upcoming events include filing deadlines, early campaign announcements, and polling data that would clarify the field and Lindell's standing among Republican primary voters.
- ›Lindell's personal wealth and willingness to self-finance could offset organizational disadvantages compared to traditional candidates
- ›His controversial public statements and legal challenges may significantly impact his appeal to moderate and establishment-aligned Republicans in Minnesota
- ›The size and composition of the Republican primary field will determine the vote-share threshold needed to win the nomination
- ›Minnesota GOP primary voting patterns and recent donor/endorsement trends would indicate Lindell's actual support among party activists
- ›Any new developments in Lindell's ongoing legal cases could materially affect his viability as a general election candidate
What moved the line
- Jun 18Mike Lindell↑7pp10→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Lisa Demuth↓4pp27→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Mike Lindell↑3pp19→22¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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