SimpleFunctions

Morgan Wallen · KX1SONG-DEC2626

Morgan Wallen is priced at 25¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 41¢ bid, 53¢ ask, 12¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside KX1SONG-DEC2626.

Price history

25¢ current

2¢
25¢50¢
Jun 12, 2026Jul 13, 2026

Contract brief

If Morgan Wallen has a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (including features), by the Billboard issue for the week of Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Morgan Wallen

Rank

#2 of 16

Leader

Post Malone 44¢

Range

1¢-44¢

Family volume

$476

Identifier

KX1SONG-DEC2626-MOR

Jul 13, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 1m ago

Implied probability

25¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 13, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 1m ago

Bid

41¢

Ask

53¢

Spread

12¢

Reported volume

$4K

Family rank

#2 of 16

16 outcomes · KX1SONG-DEC2626

Closes

Dec 21, 2026

Family volume

$476

Orderbook snapshot

41 / 53¢

Kalshi
12¢ spread
BidSize
41¢5
27¢4
26¢285
25¢5
24¢500
AskSize
53¢4
54¢500
74¢14
75¢4
78¢2

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Morgan Wallen has a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (including features), by the Billboard issue for the week of Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 21, 2026

Identifier

KX1SONG-DEC2626-MOR

SF Signal
SF Index
326.33
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

326.3%

IY (No)

157.6%

Adj IY

326%

CRI

1

RV

271%

VR

1.14

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

326.3%
157.6%
Adj IY
326%
1
RV
271%
VR
1.14
IAR
0.3/h
Overround
7.6%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.