SimpleFunctions

Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above 175000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week

Above 175K is priced at 1¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 10¢ bid, 19¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 8 inside Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above.

Price history

1¢ current

1¢
0¢10¢
Jun 11, 2026Jun 26, 2026

Contract brief

If Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx has above 175K Album Equivalent Units during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above 175K

Rank

#7 of 8

Leader

Above 25K 95¢

Range

4¢-95¢

Family volume

$789

Identifier

KXALBUMEQUIV-MUS26JUL30-175K

Jun 26, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 17m ago

Implied probability

1¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 26, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 17m ago

Bid

10¢

Ask

19¢

Spread

Reported volume

$25

Family rank

#7 of 8

8 outcomes · Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above

Closes

Aug 2, 2026

Family volume

$789

Orderbook snapshot

10 / 19¢

Kalshi
9¢ spread
BidSize
100¢1.1K
10¢27
AskSize
19¢27
93¢222
94¢100
99¢148

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx has above 175K Album Equivalent Units during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 2, 2026

Identifier

KXALBUMEQUIV-MUS26JUL30-175K

SF Signal
SF Index
4929.81
Regime
neutral

Browse this series

Artist Album-Equivalent-Units Forecast Markets
Per-series collection — every live contract in the KXALBUMEQUIV series on Kalshi, sorted by 24h volume.

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

9859.6%

IY (No)

96.4%

Adj IY

4930%

CRI

10

Overround

2.5%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

9859.6%
96.4%
Adj IY
4930%
10
Overround
2.5%

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

Opinionanalysis

Volatility Arbitrage in Prediction Markets: Why Political Favorites Above 60¢ Are Systematically Underconfident

A binary contract at price p has variance p(1-p). Le 2026 (292M trades) finds political markets underconfident at slopes 0.93-1.83 — meaning a 70¢ contract corresponds to a true probability near 83%. Four systematic vol-arb trades follow from the calibration evidence.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.