Will Nancy Pelosi resign her office early?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Nancy Pelosi resign her office early?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry between the Yes and No payoff profiles, with the Yes position offering a 1222% implied yield versus just 27% for No, reflecting the low base probability but substantial tail risk if Pelosi were to resign.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry between the Yes and No payoff profiles, with the Yes position offering a 1222% implied yield versus just 27% for No, reflecting the low base probability but substantial tail risk if Pelosi were to resign. The 3¢ spread is notably tight relative to the 16¢ price, suggesting reasonable liquidity despite the modest $84 daily volume, though the $44,899 open interest indicates meaningful capital is committed to this binary outcome. With 200 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 7, the market appears fairly priced for a low-probability event, though the recent price uptick from 12¢ to 13¢ warrants monitoring for any shifts in political sentiment.
Resolution rules
If Nancy Pelosi resigns their office, or announces they will resign their office, before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXRETIREPELOSI-26 yes 100