Before Jan 1, 2027 · Will Natalie Harp announce their departure as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President before
Before Jan 1, 2027 is priced at 28¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 19¢ bid, 24¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 5 inside Will Natalie Harp announce their departure as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President before.
Price history
28¢ current
+22¢Contract brief
If Natalie Harp leaves (or announces she will leave) as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2027
Rank
#1 of 5
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2027 19¢
Range
2¢-19¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXHARPANNOUNCEOUT-26AUG-27JAN01
Aug 26, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
19¢
Ask
24¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$663
Family rank
#1 of 5
5 outcomes · Will Natalie Harp announce their departure as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President before
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
19 / 24¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Natalie Harp leaves (or announces she will leave) as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXHARPANNOUNCEOUT-26AUG-27JAN01
Event family
Will Natalie Harp announce their departure as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2027 19¢
Current share
—
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXHARPANNOUNCEOUT-26AUG-27JAN01
Before Dec 1, 2026
kalshi · KXHARPANNOUNCEOUT-26AUG-26DEC01
Before Nov 1, 2026
kalshi · KXHARPANNOUNCEOUT-26AUG-26NOV01
Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi · KXHARPANNOUNCEOUT-26AUG-26OCT01
Before Sep 1, 2026
kalshi · KXHARPANNOUNCEOUT-26AUG-26SEP01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.