Will Natalie Harp announce their departure as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President before Oct 1, 2026
Leader sits at 19% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 15%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
15¢
Before Dec 1, 2026
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
127 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Natalie Harp announce their departure as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President before
Will Natalie Harp announce their departure as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXHARPANNOUNCEOUT-26AUG-26DEC01
Will Natalie Harp announce their departure as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXHARPANNOUNCEOUT-26AUG-27JAN01
Will Natalie Harp announce their departure as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXHARPANNOUNCEOUT-26AUG-26NOV01
Analysis
This measures the likelihood that Natalie Harp will publicly announce her departure from her White House roles before October 1, 2026—roughly 5 weeks from now. The 5% price reflects the relatively short timeframe and the stability typical of White House staffing positions absent major crises or scandals. The contract prices show traders assign higher probability to a departure announcement by January 1, 2027 (16%), suggesting most expect any exit would occur later in the year if it occurs at all. Key drivers include whether any significant political developments trigger staff changes, performance-related decisions, or personal circumstances affecting her tenure. The primary catalyst would be any official statement from the White House, Harp herself, or credible reporting indicating imminent departure before the October deadline.
- ›White House staff turnover rates and precedent for mid-term departures in similar positions
- ›Any public statements or reporting about Harp's job satisfaction, health, or personal circumstances
- ›Political developments or crises that typically prompt staff changes
- ›The contract price differential between the October 1 outcome (5¢) and January 1 outcome (16¢) indicates market consensus favors a later departure window if one occurs
- ›Absence of any recent news or speculation about potential departure as of late August 2026
What moved the line
- Aug 24Before Nov 1, 2026↑11pp6→17¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Before Dec 1, 2026↑8pp7→15¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Before Nov 1, 2026↓6pp17→11¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Before Jan 1, 2027↑6pp17→23¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Before Jan 1, 2027↓6pp23→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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