SimpleFunctions

Nebraska US Senate · KXMOVKSNESEN-26NOV03

Nebraska US Senate is priced at 46¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 49¢ bid, 56¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside KXMOVKSNESEN-26NOV03.

Price history

46¢ current

+34¢
25¢50¢
Sep 9, 2026Sep 19, 2026

Contract brief

If Nebraska US Senate achieves the largest margin of victory among all elections in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Kansas US Senate and Nebraska US Senate, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Nebraska US Senate

Rank

#1 of 2

Leader

Nebraska US Senate 49¢

Range

42¢-49¢

Family volume

$210

Identifier

KXMOVKSNESEN-26NOV03-NESEN

Sep 21, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 1m ago

Implied probability

46¢
Latest venue quote
Sep 21, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 1m ago

Bid

49¢

Ask

56¢

Spread

Reported volume

$3K

Family rank

#1 of 2

2 outcomes · KXMOVKSNESEN-26NOV03

Closes

Nov 10, 2026

Family volume

$210

Orderbook snapshot

49 / 56¢

Kalshi
7¢ spread
BidSize
49¢2
48¢100
46¢200
44¢223
22¢141
AskSize
56¢200
64¢153
65¢785
91¢601
92¢2.7K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Nebraska US Senate achieves the largest margin of victory among all elections in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Kansas US Senate and Nebraska US Senate, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Nov 10, 2026

Identifier

KXMOVKSNESEN-26NOV03-NESEN

SF Signal
SF Index
376.65
Regime
taker

Event family

KXMOVKSNESEN-26NOV03.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$210

Outcomes

2

Highest price

Nebraska US Senate 49¢

Current share

0%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

taker

Score

0.636

Observability

direct

Event type

political

Full indicator table

753.3%
695.4%
Adj IY
377%
1

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.