New Caledonia · KXWCQUAL-30
New Caledonia is priced at 11¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 1¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 10¢ spread. This outcome ranks #16 of 16 inside KXWCQUAL-30.
Price history
11¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
If New Caledonia qualifies for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup main tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
New Caledonia
Rank
#16 of 16
Leader
Brazil 93¢
Range
1¢-93¢
Family volume
$3
Identifier
KXWCQUAL-30-NCL
Jul 27, 2026, 8:37 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
10¢
Reported volume
$1
Family rank
#16 of 16
16 outcomes · KXWCQUAL-30
Closes
Jan 15, 2031
Family volume
$3
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If New Caledonia qualifies for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup main tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 15, 2031
Identifier
KXWCQUAL-30-NCL
Event family
KXWCQUAL-30.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Brazil 93¢
Current share
0%
Brazil
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-BRA
Australia
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-AUS
Belgium
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-BEL
Austria
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-AUT
Canada
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-CAN
Ivory Coast
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-CIV
Cameroon
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-CMR
Congo DR
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-COD
Chile
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-CHI
Bolivia
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-BOL
Panama
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-PAN
Bosnia and Herzegovina
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-BIH
Albania
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-ALB
Slovakia
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-SVK
Burkina Faso
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-BUR
New Caledonia
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-NCL
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.