Before Jan 1, 2027 · Will Nigel Farage announce their departure as Leader of Reform UK before
Before Jan 1, 2027 is priced at 20¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 18¢ bid, 19¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Will Nigel Farage announce their departure as Leader of Reform UK before.
Price history
20¢ current
+17¢Contract brief
If Nigel Farage leaves as Leader of Reform UK before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2027
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2027 18¢
Range
7¢-18¢
Family volume
$10K
Identifier
KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-JAN01
Jul 12, 2026, 7:38 PM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
18¢
Ask
19¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$6K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Will Nigel Farage announce their departure as Leader of Reform UK before
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$10K
Orderbook snapshot
18 / 19¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Nigel Farage leaves as Leader of Reform UK before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-JAN01
Event family
Will Nigel Farage announce their departure as Leader of Reform UK before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2027 18¢
Current share
61%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.