Before Sep 1, 2026 · Will Nigel Farage announce their departure as Leader of Reform UK before
Before Sep 1, 2026 is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside Will Nigel Farage announce their departure as Leader of Reform UK before.
Price history
13¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
If Nigel Farage leaves as Leader of Reform UK before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Sep 1, 2026
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2027 18¢
Range
7¢-18¢
Family volume
$10K
Identifier
KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-SEP01
Jul 12, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 1m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$4K
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · Will Nigel Farage announce their departure as Leader of Reform UK before
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
Family volume
$10K
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Nigel Farage leaves as Leader of Reform UK before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
Identifier
KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-SEP01
Event family
Will Nigel Farage announce their departure as Leader of Reform UK before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2027 18¢
Current share
39%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.