Noah Gragson · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26
Noah Gragson is priced at 8¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 39¢ ask, 39¢ spread. This outcome ranks #12 of 16 inside KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26.
Price history
8¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If Noah Gragson finishes in the top 5 in the Main Event at the 2026 NASCAR Quaker State 400 Available at Walmart, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Noah Gragson
Rank
#12 of 16
Leader
Tyler Reddick 41¢
Range
1¢-41¢
Family volume
$61K
Identifier
KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-NOGR
Jul 13, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
39¢
Spread
39¢
24h volume
$243
Family rank
#12 of 16
16 outcomes · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26
Closes
Aug 10, 2026
Family volume
$61K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 39¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Noah Gragson finishes in the top 5 in the Main Event at the 2026 NASCAR Quaker State 400 Available at Walmart, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 10, 2026
Identifier
KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-NOGR
Event family
KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$61K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Tyler Reddick 41¢
Current share
0%
Tyler Reddick
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-TYRE
Bubba Wallace
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-BUWA
Denny Hamlin
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-DEHA
Kyle Larson
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-KYLA
Ryan Blaney
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-RYBL
Ross Chastain
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-ROCH
Carson Hocevar
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-CAHO
Ryan Preece
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-RYPR
Joey Logano
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-JOLO
Zane Smith
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-ZASM
Alex Bowman
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-ALBO
Austin Cindric
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-AUCI
Noah Gragson
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-NOGR
Daniel Suárez
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-DASU
Chase Elliott
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-CHEL
Brad Keselowski
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-BRKE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 8% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.